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The Ask · $2.455M
12  /  Data & Sources

Every number in this deck traces to a source.

Market data re-verified July 15, 2026. Each figure below ties to the deck, the interactive proforma, and the workbook “Lucky's Leafs Cultivation Proforma — Belvidere Rd 13-ac (Oct 2026).xlsx.”

Market — prices & demand

  • Cannabis Benchmarks® — U.S. Cannabis Spot Index $997/lb (June 26, 2026); July implied forward ~$1,060. NJ spot $2,391/lb (September 2025 print). 2025 grow-type indices: outdoor $418 · greenhouse $725 · indoor $1,378.
  • NJ wholesale compression through H1 2026 — record monthly declines: −8.2% (Feb), −14.2% (Mar — largest on record), −10.5% (May, to an all-time low), −4.4% (Jun); index −16.8% vs the YTD average (Cannabis Benchmarks weekly reports).
  • NJ Cannabis Regulatory Commission — certified 2025 sales: $1.164B total — $1.118B recreational (+11.8% YoY), $46.2M medicinal (−45%) — certified May 14, 2026. 300+ dispensaries open across 21 counties (May 2026); 2,521 of 3,212 applications approved.
  • Retail flower price compression — $8.86/g (Apr '25) → $6.80/g (Apr '26), −23.3% (CRC data).
  • NJBiz “Croptober” (Oct 2025), citing NJ-CRC — just three fully-outdoor cultivation facilities statewide: Brute's Roots (Hammonton), North Lake Supply (Augusta), Nova Farms (Swedesboro). Operational cultivators roughly doubled in late 2025 (~24 → 46). Headset: NJ pricing remains “an outlier… meaningfully higher than most U.S. markets.”
  • CRC production data (via NJBiz) — 2024: 24.52M oz from 6,051 harvests (+49% vs 2023's 16.41M oz); Jan–Oct 2025: 25.87M oz from 18,679 harvests (harvest count ~3×, volume ~flat — many more small operators). 60+ cultivator licenses active. Scale comparison: Ascend's entire NJ canopy = 42,000 sq ft; our single outdoor field (152,460 sq ft gross) ≈ 3.6× that.
  • Sealed market — federal law bars interstate cannabis transfer; every pound sold in NJ is grown in NJ. Outdoor entitlement race: Grasshopper Farms markets NJ sun-grown; Andover Township fielded a ~125-acre outdoor application (NJ1015).

Market — excise & structural floors

  • NJ Division of Taxation — Social Equity Excise Fee (SEEF): $2.50/oz = $40/lb, effective Jan 1, 2026 on cultivator sales (SF-100 monthly filing). The CRC voted Dec 2025 to hold the rate flat, rejecting a $30/oz staff recommendation. The rate resets annually; the statute scales toward $30/oz as retail prices fall — modeled in every scenario, and stress-testable to $480/lb in the interactive proforma.
  • SEEF invoicing practice — the fee is typically invoiced as a pass-through on top of wholesale price (Div. of Taxation SF-100; cultivator-to-cultivator and medical transfers exempt; wholesale SEEF sales not charged 6.625% retail sales tax per TB-104). The model deliberately books it as an absorbed cost — disclosed in the deck and workbook.
  • Structural-floor analysis (this deck, Jul 2026) — marginal-producer derivation: NJ's marginal supply is indoor at ~$500–700/lb cash cost + $40/lb excise ⇒ blended floor ~$850–950/lb; the value tier where outdoor competes floors near ~$550–600/lb; gluts can push 20–30% below floor for a season before capacity exits. Two independent July-2026 underwriting reviews place the downside floor at $750–900/lb. Derived estimates, not a printed index — no public NJ outdoor transaction series exists (grow-type detail is subscription data).

Property — 13 acres, Belvidere Road, Harmony Township, Warren County, NJ

  • Seller's public listing — 420property.com listing #919937, “NJ Outdoor cultivation – 13 acres available, Harmony Twp, Warren County NJ” (listed Nov 7, 2025; Colliers International): $950,000, sale; lot size 13 acres; zoning shown as C-1 (not a Harmony district); utilities listed as electricity, city water and sewer. The owner is selling a portion of a larger holding, intends to cultivate cannabis on the land retained, and is open to cooperative grow arrangements. Seller-submitted marketing statements; the platform does not verify listings — confirmed in diligence (NDA package).
  • Zoning — Harmony's districts are AR-500/300/250/150, AH, R-HB, CO-1, CO-2, LI-O, LI-O/C and I-1 (Township zoning map, 2020); the listing's “C-1” is not one of them. The cannabis ordinance (§525-66) permits cultivation in LI-O, LI-O/C, I-1 and the redevelopment areas, and Warren County's zoning layer places the privately held Belvidere Road candidates for this listing in LI-O/C — confirmed by zoning determination in diligence, with the buyer-named support resolution and site plan approval.
  • Outdoor bulk standards (O:25-05, July 2025; §525-69) — lot ≥ 5 acres and ≥ 200 ft wide; ≤ 5% lot coverage by buildings and structures (the same cap Harmony applies to farms — the planted field is not coverage; indoor cannabis use allows 15%); 25 ft / one story; setbacks 100 ft front, 60 ft one side / 150 ft both, 50 ft rear; outdoor growing area ≥ 300 ft from adjoining residential properties (150 ft for indoor). Cultivation is not permitted on farmland-assessed land, so conversion triggers the farmland rollback tax (budgeted in acquisition costs). The site plan sizes each phase within these limits.
  • Comparable — the municipally supported 17.14-acre lot on the same road (Block 31, Lot 7.02, created by the recorded minor subdivision of the 27.07-acre parent Lot 7, Warren County Map #877) is publicly listed at $2,495,000 (420property #817359). The $1,545,000 difference is the price of the land before its approvals.

Approvals & licensing

  • Harmony Township Ordinance O:24-06 (adopted May 7, 2024) — expressly permits outdoor cultivation (“on the exterior portions of a lot”) and manufacturing in the LI-O, LI-O/C and I-1 zones and the Township's redevelopment areas; rare in NJ, where outdoor is allowed only where a town opts in. Harmony prohibits dispensaries, wholesalers, and distribution facilities, and levies a 2% local transfer tax on cultivator & manufacturer receipts — the maximum a municipality may levy on cultivator sales (CRC municipal FAQ; NJ Treasury TB-104).
  • Harmony's cannabis record — Ordinance O:21-8 (Aug 19, 2021) first permitted cultivation in LI-O, LI-O/C, I-1 and the redevelopment areas with a 2% cultivator tax; O:24-06 (May 2024) added outdoor cultivation and manufacturing; O:25-05 (Jul 2025) added cannabis bulk standards. Support resolutions taken up by the Township Committee: R:24-24 (Ballyshannon Ventures, 2108 Belvidere Rd, Jun 4 2024, clerk-certified); R:25-18 (Vidu Brothers Cannabis, 2100 Belvidere Rd, Apr 1 2025); R:25-39 (Inca Farms, Sep 2 2025); R:26-24 (Grasshopper Farms NJ, Mar 3 2026). Source: harmonytwp-nj.gov agendas and meeting packets (minutes are not posted; R:25-18 onward confirmed as agenda items).
  • Harmony Township Resolution 24-24 (June 4, 2024) — municipal support for Ballyshannon Ventures LLC's Class 1 Cultivator + Class 2 Manufacturer application at Block 31, Lot 7, Belvidere Road — the local approval that gates the state license. Township precedent: this parcel requires its own, buyer-named resolution.
  • N.J.A.C. 17:30-10.4 — cultivator canopy tiers (Tier V = 75,001–100,000 sq ft; Tier VI = 100,001–150,000 sq ft, the top tier; the CRC approved an outdoor Tier VI “up to 150,000 sq. ft.” for Atlantic Cultivators, Res. 2025-12-17-04). Canopy is mature-plant area measured around the outermost plants, across all methods combined; the 3.5-acre outdoor field is 152,460 sq ft gross and is planted to the 150,000 sq ft cap. A license holder may hold only one cultivator license (CREAMM Act and N.J.A.C. 17:30; the CRC denied a waiver of that rule on Dec 17, 2025, Res. 2025-12-17-18), so 150,000 sq ft is the company's total mature canopy. The statewide license-count cap expired February 22, 2023 (the one-license-per-holder rule remains); vertical integration permitted.
  • Licensing mechanics — Class 1 application ~$20k (20% at submission / 80% at approval); conditional path ~4–5 weeks to board consideration; annual/conversion ~12–26 weeks. Seasonal reality: plant ~May, harvest ~Oct — first-harvest revenue lands the first fall after licensure.

Model anchors (all scenarios include the $40/lb SEEF)

  • Outdoor price scenarios (revised Aug 2026) — Conservative $450 / Base $900 / Upside $1,200 per lb, each anchored to the structural-floor derivation above: conservative = the U.S. outdoor index with zero NJ premium (a glut beneath the value tier); base = the blended structural floor (~$850–950); upside = the two independent July-2026 underwriting reviews' base-case view ($1,000–1,200). Context: NJ Sept '25 all-flower $2,391; NY sun-grown prints near indoor prices. Crop cash break-even (grow cost + excise) ≈ $240–290/lb.
  • Grade-mix pricing (industry-reported, spring 2026 — not a public index) — premium outdoor flower $1,800–2,200/lb · B-buds/fresh-frozen $1,000–1,400/lb · extraction biomass $300–600/lb. A conservative 40/25/35 mix blends to ≈$1,130/lb; the base books $900 blended. NJ grade-level transaction data is not publicly released; ranges are directional.
  • Outdoor grow cost — industry range $150–300/lb (median ~$214); modeled $175–250/lb across scenarios.
  • Yield anchors — 1,500 / 2,000 / 2,722 lb per acre (low / industry average / 1 oz-per-sq-ft upside); scenarios use 1,800 / 2,000 / 2,722.
  • Proprietary cultivation-program yield target (company representation, not an external source) — 1.5–2.0 oz/sq ft on the gross 152,460 sq ft field ⇒ ~14,300–19,000 lb/season. An engineering estimate for the proprietary methodology, not a completed-harvest result; no financial scenario in the deck or proforma relies on it — all scenarios remain underwritten at ≤ 1 oz/sq ft.
  • Taxes in the five-year model — 2% Harmony transfer tax; $40/lb SEEF; ~26% blended effective income tax (cultivators capitalize most production cost into COGS under 280E §471; NJ decoupled from 280E at the state level).
  • Capital plan (Oct 2026) — $2.455M raise: land at the $950,000 list price + $925k season working capital (the full harvest-window trough, grow + overhead to first receipts) + $210k site development + $95k licensing, entitlement & legal + $95k year-one insurance & compliance + $90k acquisition costs (incl. farmland-assessment rollback) + $90k harvest infrastructure & contingency. The fully provisioned v3 plan with the land swapped: the raise falls by exactly the $1,545,000 land difference, and year-0 cash ($1.11M) is unchanged.
  • Headline outputs (all incl. SEEF; outdoor only in every scenario — one license, 150,000 sq ft cap) — one outdoor cycle (3.5 ac): base $4.62M (4.86× the land) / conservative $1.01M (1.06×) / upside $9.38M (9.88×); sensitivity grid: 20 of 24 cells ≥ the land price. Year-1 crop-cash floor +$316k (Oct) — the trough is fully pre-funded by the $925k WC line; end-of-season crop cash +$5.55M. Five-year base: revenue $6.3M and net income $2.85M every year (1.16× the raise); cumulative net ≈ $14.2M; Year-5 ending cash ≈ $15.4M; balance sheet ties to $0 every year. Greenhouse or indoor canopy would have to come out of the same 150,000 sq ft (CRC approval) and is not modeled.

Key URLs & documents

  • NJ Div. of Taxation — SEEF: nj.gov/treasury/taxation/cannabis/recreational/seef.shtml
  • CRC 2025-in-review (Feb 6, 2026) & certified sales: nj.gov/cannabis/highpoints/20260206.shtml
  • Cannabis Benchmarks U.S. Spot Index (Jun 26, 2026): cannabisbenchmarks.com/reports/u-s-cannabis-spot-index-june-26-2026/
  • CRC held SEEF flat for 2026: capemaycountyherald.com (Dec 2025); Cannabis Business Times (Governor's proposed hike)
  • Cultivator tiers: N.J.A.C. 17:30-10.4 (regulations.justia.com); license cap lifted: mjbizdaily.com (Feb 2023)
  • NJ market analyses: dankreports.com/new-jersey-cannabis-sales-analysis; partyllama.co wholesale pricing guide 2025
  • NJBiz “Croptober” (Oct 2025) — three outdoor farms per CRC: njbiz.com/croptober-new-jersey-cannabis-harvest-season; Headset NJ: headset.io/markets/new-jersey
  • Grasshopper Farms NJ sun-grown: grasshopperfarms.com/newjersey; Andover outdoor application: nj1015.com
  • Project documents — seller's listing: 420property.com/listing/nj-outdoor-cultivation-13-acres-available-harmony-twp-warren-county-nj/ · Harmony Ordinance O:24-06 · Resolution 24-24 · Harmony agendas, ordinances & zoning map: harmonytwp-nj.gov · municipal transfer-tax cap: nj.gov/cannabis (Municipalities FAQ), NJ Treasury TB-104.

Market data verified July 15, 2026 · Confidential · Not an offer to sell securities